Texas A&M Corpus Chris

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	326.0
Current RPI:	326
Expected SOS:	338
Current SOS:	338
Current Record:	8-18
Expected Record:	8-18
Current Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-12
Current OOC Record:	0-7
Expected OOC Record:	0-7
Expected OOC RPI:	349
Expected OOC SOS:	258

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
8-18	326.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas A&M Corpus Chris.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	Baylor (68.0)	B12	A	70-46	L	0%
11-15	UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)	WAC	H	75-82	L	0%
11-19	Georgia (79.0)	SEC	A	68-65	L	0%
11-24	UTSA (187.0)	CUSA	A	72-58	L	0%
11-29	Texas St. (243.0)	SB	A	66-53	L	0%
12-6	UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)	WAC	A	82-78	L	0%
12-19	Mississippi (141.0)	SEC	A	85-63	L	0%
12-28	Central Arkansas (223.0)	Slnd	A	81-69	L	0%
12-30	Lamar (230.0)	Slnd	H	72-77	L	0%
1-3	Northwestern St. (342.0)	Slnd	H	67-65	W	100%
1-10	Sam Houston St. (206.0)	Slnd	H	50-82	L	0%
1-13	New Orleans (239.0)	Slnd	A	61-55	L	0%
1-16	Nicholls St. (145.0)	Slnd	A	91-61	L	0%
1-24	Abilene Christian (260.0)	Slnd	H	80-66	W	100%
1-27	Houston Baptist (345.0)	Slnd	H	79-69	W	100%
1-31	Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)	Slnd	A	54-67	W	100%
2-3	Incarnate Word (347.0)	Slnd	A	51-56	W	100%
2-7	Sam Houston St. (206.0)	Slnd	A	66-64	L	0%
2-10	New Orleans (239.0)	Slnd	H	53-62	L	0%
2-14	Stephen F. Austin (104.0)	Slnd	H	68-87	L	0%
2-17	Lamar (230.0)	Slnd	A	79-76	L	0%
2-22	Abilene Christian (260.0)	Slnd	A	67-76	W	100%
2-24	Incarnate Word (347.0)	Slnd	H	62-69	L	0%
2-28	McNeese St. (297.0)	Slnd	H	82-70	W	100%
3-3	Houston Baptist (345.0)	Slnd	A	87-92	W	100%
3-7	New Orleans (239.0)	Slnd	N	83-76	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas A&M Corpus Chris's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Texas A&M Corpus Chris's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Texas A&M Corpus Chris.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	26.51	26.51	33.33	33.33	-8.84	-8.84
New Orleans	Slnd	6.62	6.62	36.00	36.00	-1.85	-1.85
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	4.91	4.91	48.15	48.15	-0.18	-0.18
Houston Baptist	Slnd	4.79	4.79	11.54	11.54	-3.69	-3.69
Incarnate Word	Slnd	4.77	4.77	9.09	9.09	-3.91	-3.91
Lamar	Slnd	4.76	4.76	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Abilene Christian	Slnd	4.71	4.71	48.00	48.00	-0.19	-0.19
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	3.91	3.91	39.29	39.29	-0.84	-0.84
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	3.01	3.01	79.31	79.31	1.76	1.76
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	2.97	2.97	65.52	65.52	0.92	0.92
Central Arkansas	Slnd	2.96	2.96	48.39	48.39	-0.10	-0.10
Nicholls St.	Slnd	2.96	2.96	59.26	59.26	0.55	0.55
McNeese St.	Slnd	2.89	2.89	33.33	33.33	-0.96	-0.96
Northwestern St.	Slnd	2.82	2.82	8.33	8.33	-2.35	-2.35
Texas St.	SB	2.16	2.16	40.00	40.00	-0.43	-0.43
UTSA	CUSA	2.02	2.02	51.72	51.72	0.07	0.07
Baylor	B12	2.02	2.02	53.33	53.33	0.13	0.13
Mississippi	SEC	2.02	2.02	35.48	35.48	-0.59	-0.59
Georgia	SEC	1.95	1.95	53.12	53.12	0.12	0.12
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.33	0.33	80.65	80.65	0.20	0.20
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.26	0.26	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Rice	CUSA	0.26	0.26	17.24	17.24	-0.17	-0.17
UTEP	CUSA	0.24	0.24	33.33	33.33	-0.08	-0.08
Seattle	WAC	0.23	0.23	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Utah Valley	WAC	0.23	0.23	65.52	65.52	0.07	0.07
Houston	Amer	0.22	0.22	78.79	78.79	0.13	0.13
UMKC	WAC	0.21	0.21	27.59	27.59	-0.09	-0.09
SMU	Amer	0.21	0.21	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.20	0.20	62.50	62.50	0.05	0.05
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.20	0.20	33.33	33.33	-0.07	-0.07
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.19	0.19	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
LSU	SEC	0.19	0.19	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
North Texas	CUSA	0.17	0.17	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.16	0.16	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.16	0.16	20.00	20.00	-0.09	-0.09
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.16	0.16	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri	SEC	0.15	0.15	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Lipscomb	ASun	0.14	0.14	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
UAB	CUSA	0.14	0.14	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.13	0.13	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Oklahoma	B12	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Tulsa	Amer	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Texas	B12	0.13	0.13	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.13	0.13	3.33	3.33	-0.12	-0.12
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.13	0.13	83.33	83.33	0.09	0.09
UT Arlington	SB	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Auburn	SEC	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
South Carolina	SEC	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.12	0.12	75.76	75.76	0.06	0.06
Memphis	Amer	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Horz	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.10	0.10	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Idaho	BSky	0.10	0.10	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
USC Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.10	10.71	10.71	-0.08	-0.08
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.09	0.09	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Georgia St.	SB	0.09	0.09	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.09	0.09	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.09	0.09	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Gonzaga	WCC	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Bowling Green	MAC	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.07	0.07	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.07	0.07	87.88	87.88	0.05	0.05
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Utah	P12	0.07	0.07	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Tulane	Amer	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.07	0.07	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Santa Clara	WCC	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.06	0.06	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Appalachian St.	SB	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
TCU	B12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.06	0.06	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.04	0.04	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.04	0.04	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00